Advanced Tool
Challenge Calculator
Run 500 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate your probability of passing any prop firm challenge.
Your Trading Stats
Enter Your Stats & Run
Fill in your trading statistics and click "Run 500 Simulations" to see your estimated pass probability for each firm.
Running 500 Simulations...
Analyzing pass probability for each prop firm
Challenge Rules Comparison
| Firm | Profit Target | Daily DD | Max DD | Time Limit | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTMO | 10% / 5% | 5% | 10% | 30 / 60 days | No strict consistency rule |
| FundedNext | 8% / 5% | 5% | 10% | No time limit | No consistency rule (Express model) |
| The5%ers | 8% / 5% | 3-5% | 6-10% | No time limit | No strict consistency rule |
| TopStep | $3,000-$9,000 | Trailing | $2,000-$4,500 | Subscription-based | Consistency rule applies |
| Apex Trader Funding | $1,500-$20,000 | Trailing | Varies by account | Subscription-based | Consistency rule applies |
| Goat Funded Trader | 8-10% / 5% | 5% | 8-10% | No time limit | No consistency rule |
| SabioTrade | 10% | 3% | 6% | No time limit | No consistency rule |
| TradeDay | $1,000-$9,000 | Trailing | Varies by account | Subscription-based | Consistency rule applies |
| HashHedge | 8% / 6% | 5% | 10% | No time limit | No consistency rules, no daily profit cap |
| BrightFunded | 8 / 5 | 5 | 10 | ||
| Atlas Funded | 4 / 0 | 5 | 7 | ||
| Vantage Markets | N/A | N/A (risk management is trader's own) | N/A (risk management is trader's own) | N/A — trade anytime | None |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling to model the probability of different outcomes. Our tool runs 500 simulated trading periods based on your win rate, average win/loss, and trade frequency to estimate how likely you are to pass each firm's challenge.
How accurate is this calculator?
The calculator provides statistical estimates based on your inputs. Real trading involves psychology, market conditions, and other factors not modeled here. Use results as a general guide, not a guarantee.
What does "Pass Rate" mean?
Pass Rate is the percentage of 500 simulated challenges where you hit the profit target without breaching the maximum drawdown limit. A 70% pass rate means ~350 out of 500 simulations succeeded.
Why does my pass rate differ between firms?
Each firm has different profit targets, drawdown limits, and time constraints. A firm with a lower target and larger drawdown buffer will naturally have a higher pass rate.
Should I choose the firm with the highest pass rate?
Pass rate is one factor. Also consider profit split, payout speed, platform support, reputation, and pricing when choosing a firm.
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